Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Extreme Precipitation under Climate Change over Gandaki Province, Nepal
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper presents a research study of expected precipitation extremes across the Gandaki Province, Nepal. The used five indices to assess extreme under climate change. Precipitation output two Global Climate Models (GCMs) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) were characterize future during rainfall season from June September (JJAS) and overall days year. To events, we daily SSP2–4.5 SSP5–8.5 scenarios Beijing Center China Meteorological Administration, China; Research Institute (MRI), Japan. Considering large uncertainties with GCM outputs different downscaling (including bias correction) methods, direct use made find change in pattern for climate. For 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, 100-year return periods, observed projected 24 h 72 annual maximum time series calculate level. result showed an increase simple intensity index (SDII) near (2021–2040) far (2081–2100), respect base-year (1995–2014). Similarly, heavy (R50 mm), very (R100 (RX1day), three-day (RX3day) demonstrated toward end 21st century. A comparison R50 mm R100 values extensive (22.6% 63.8%) future. Excessive was forecasted over Kaski, Nawalparasi East, Syangja, western half Tanahun region. may pose severe threat long-term viability social infrastructure, as well environmental health. findings these studies will provide opportunity better understand origins events ability CMIP6 model estimate anticipated changes. More into underlying physical factors that modulate occurrence incidences relevant policies is suggested.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Architecture
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2673-8945']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/architecture2040039